Confidence explains support, not certainty
Confidence describes how strongly the available evidence supports a stated conclusion under the current assessment. It is not a guarantee that the conclusion is correct, and it does not describe evidence that was never connected or assessed.
A high-priority item can still carry uncertainty. A lower-confidence item can still deserve urgent review when its possible impact is serious.
Review the breakdown before the number
- Which facts increased or reduced confidence.
- Which sources were current, stale, partial, or unavailable.
- Whether the conclusion is observed, inferred, or simulated.
- Which alternative explanation remains plausible.
- What additional evidence would change the assessment.
Carry uncertainty into the next step
When handing work to another person, include the evidence that supports the assessment, the main unknowns, and the reason for the proposed next step. Do not rewrite a qualified conclusion as a fact.